Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2475 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 2475 TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1520 TPA 19:54 → JFK 22:33 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2475 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:05	JFK 09:51	8%	3%	1.2%	94%
B6 226 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 07:16	JFK 10:04	14%	4%	1.6%	69%
DL 2042 Delta Flight history →	TPA 11:11	JFK 13:51	19%	5%	1.2%	87%
B6 2726 JetBlue	TPA 15:15	JFK 18:02	33%	14%	1.6%	no record
DL 1520 Delta	TPA 19:54	JFK 22:33	34%	9%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON