tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Southwest via Hobby, leaving 05:25, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2435 Southwest TPA 06:35 LAS 08:22 7% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 4309 Southwest TPA 19:50 LAS 21:32 41% 9% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:25 → HOU 06:44WN 4468 1h 26m Houston HOU 08:10 → LAS 09:25WN 1776 7h 00m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 7h 45m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 1h 38m Dulles IAD 13:00 → LAS 15:09UA 2156 9h 09m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 7h 41m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 7h 32m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → TPA 06:10 → EWR 08:56UA 2439 1h 58m Newark EWR 10:54 → LAS 13:21UA 446 10h 11m 100% 77%
FrontierDetails → TPA 06:11 → DEN 08:09F9 1113 1h 51m Denver DEN 10:00 → LAS 11:07F9 1993 7h 56m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:15 → IAH 08:42UA 2491 3h 13m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 58m 95% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:16 → SEA 10:10DL 1090 55m Seattle SEA 11:05 → LAS 13:42DL 2880 9h 26m 66% 47%
AmericanDetails → TPA 16:05 → PHL 18:48AA 809 1h 00m Philadelphia PHL 19:48 → LAS 22:09AA 3005 9h 04m 66% 37%
AmericanDetails → TPA 18:07 → PHX 19:45AA 1402 51m Phoenix PHX 20:36 → LAS 21:43AA 2106 6h 36m 57% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON