Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 538 at 07:21 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 538 TPA 07:21 → LAX 09:18 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 749 TPA 19:15 → LAX 21:17 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 538 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:21	LAX 09:18	16%	4%	1.0%	89%
UA 2019 United Flight history →	TPA 12:45	LAX 15:10	20%	6%	0.7%	94%worse than usual
DL 749 Delta Flight history →	TPA 19:15	LAX 21:17	29%	7%	1.0%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501	7h 25m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	7h 12m	88%	73%
United Details →	TPA 07:15 → IAH 08:42UA 2491	1h 11m Houston	IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469	7h 15m	89%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON