Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2199 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 2199 TPA 06:00 → MIA 07:13 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2913 TPA 15:06 → MIA 16:18 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2199 American Flight history →	TPA 06:00	MIA 07:13	10%	3%	1.2%	85%
AA 1740 American Flight history →	TPA 07:00	MIA 08:10	11%	4%	1.3%	95%
AA 593 American	TPA 09:59	MIA 11:13	24%	7%	3.6%	no record
MQ 4122 Envoy	TPA 19:50	MIA 21:01	37%	14%	3.3%	no record
MQ 4093 Envoy	TPA 18:07	MIA 19:26	43%	16%	3.7%	no record
AA 2913 American	TPA 15:06	MIA 16:18	43%	16%	5.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON