Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2074 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2074 TPA 06:20 → MSY 07:06 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1197 TPA 21:50 → MSY 22:36 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2074 Southwest	TPA 06:20	MSY 07:06	3%	1%	1.1%	no record
WN 4184 Southwest	TPA 13:35	MSY 14:20	24%	8%	2.5%	no record
DL 8846 Delta	TPA 17:17	MSY 17:57	25%	8%	1.9%	no record
WN 1197 Southwest	TPA 21:50	MSY 22:36	27%	11%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON