Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2189 at 07:22 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–50%.

Safest bet that day UA 2189 TPA 07:22 → ORD 09:22 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 1779 TPA 18:00 → ORD 19:55 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2189 United Flight history →	TPA 07:22	ORD 09:22	12%	5%	0.8%	85%
AA 354 American Flight history →	TPA 08:41	ORD 10:38	14%	5%	1.4%	92%
UA 2223 United Flight history →	TPA 12:30	ORD 14:40	27%	14%	1.3%	85%worse than usual
AA 3168 American	TPA 13:53	ORD 15:58	40%	19%	4.1%	no record
AA 1101 American Flight history →	TPA 19:26	ORD 21:41	41%	22%	1.9%	55%
UA 2777 United	TPA 19:30	ORD 21:31	42%	22%	1.1%	no record
UA 1010 United Flight history →	TPA 16:30	ORD 18:40	45%	23%	1.1%	61%
UA 1779 United	TPA 18:00	ORD 19:55	50%	28%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON