Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: F9 1474 at 05:53 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–34%.

Safest bet that day F9 1474 TPA 05:53 → PHL 08:41 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest AA 2672 TPA 18:21 → PHL 21:05 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1474 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 05:53	PHL 08:41	8%	4%	1.5%	69%
AA 2807 American Flight history →	TPA 10:59	PHL 13:38	15%	5%	1.2%	90%
G4 4194 Allegiant	TPA 01:28	PHL 04:08	17%	9%	1.5%	no record
F9 2538 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 09:46	PHL 12:34	19%	8%	1.6%	68%
AA 1981 American	TPA 12:33	PHL 15:18	25%	8%	1.3%	no record
F9 2836 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 22:30	PHL 01:09	29%	12%	2.0%	82%worse than usual
AA 776 American	TPA 14:16	PHL 17:00	29%	11%	1.8%	no record
AA 809 American Flight history →	TPA 16:05	PHL 18:48	33%	12%	1.2%	65%
AA 2672 American	TPA 18:21	PHL 21:05	34%	13%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON