Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 261 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 261 TPA 06:05 → PHX 07:27 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1402 TPA 18:07 → PHX 19:45 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 261 Southwest	TPA 06:05	PHX 07:27	7%	1%	0.8%	no record
AA 1759 American	TPA 07:34	PHX 09:10	16%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 4712 Southwest	TPA 18:35	PHX 19:53	30%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 1402 American Flight history →	TPA 18:07	PHX 19:45	32%	13%	1.0%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	TPA 05:25 → HOU 06:44WN 4468	1h 16m Houston	HOU 08:00 → PHX 08:47WN 1744	6h 22m	97%	83%
United Details →	TPA 11:39 → IAH 13:02UA 1979	1h 11m Houston	IAH 14:13 → PHX 15:03UA 1798	6h 24m	93%	70%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:45 → ATL 10:15DL 744	55m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	6h 18m	87%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON