Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3858 at 09:45 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3858 TPA 09:45 → RDU 11:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1275 TPA 20:59 → RDU 22:55 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3858 Southwest	TPA 09:45	RDU 11:45	8%	4%	0.9%	no record
DL 1279 Delta Flight history →	TPA 09:11	RDU 11:04	9%	4%	1.4%	91%
F9 2730 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 13:56	RDU 16:05	26%	13%	2.7%	84%
DL 1275 Delta Flight history →	TPA 20:59	RDU 22:55	26%	7%	1.3%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON