tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Southwest via Hobby, leaving 05:25, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 518 Alaska TPA 19:25 SAN 21:31 34% 7% 1.2% no record
WN 3914 Southwest TPA 18:28 SAN 20:24 46% 11% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 8h 39m 98% 78%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:25 → HOU 06:44WN 4468 1h 21m Houston HOU 08:05 → SAN 09:31WN 699 7h 06m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 1h 18m Dulles IAD 12:40 → SAN 15:03UA 2163 9h 03m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 53m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:16 → SEA 10:10DL 1090 2h 04m Seattle SEA 12:14 → SAN 15:16DL 2572 11h 00m 96% 75%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:35 → SLC 09:11DL 2045 1h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 8h 33m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808 2h 42m Detroit DTW 13:50 → SAN 15:33DL 761 10h 03m 97% 72%
JetBlueDetails → TPA 06:30 → BOS 09:33B6 1192 49m Boston BOS 10:22 → SAN 13:39B6 219 10h 09m 88% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:15 → IAH 08:42UA 2491 48m Houston IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51UA 2491 6h 36m 67% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON