tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 4217 at 09:45, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4217 Southwest TPA 09:45 SAT 11:37 10% 3% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:25 → HOU 06:44WN 4468 1h 16m Houston HOU 08:00 → SAT 09:09WN 258 4h 44m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 08m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 6h 10m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → TPA 11:39 → IAH 13:02UA 1979 1h 50m Houston IAH 14:52 → SAT 16:12UA 2030 5h 33m 95% 75%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:53DL 1227 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 15:40 → SAT 17:11DL 1465 6h 57m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808 2h 33m Detroit DTW 13:41 → SAT 15:51DL 2458 8h 21m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → TPA 07:00 → DFW 08:49AA 1369 1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:34 → SAT 11:51AA 413 5h 51m 98% 71%
UnitedDetails → TPA 14:00 → IAD 16:22UA 1576 1h 23m Dulles IAD 17:45 → SAT 20:22UA 1869 7h 22m 88% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:15 → IAH 08:42UA 2491 50m Houston IAH 09:32 → SAT 10:41UA 1371 4h 26m 66% 52%
AmericanDetails → TPA 14:33 → DFW 16:24AA 3112 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:22 → SAT 18:39AA 3899 · flown by Envoy 5h 06m 68% 49%
DeltaDetails → TPA 18:03 → ATL 19:48DL 759 1h 04m Atlanta ATL 20:52 → SAT 22:19DL 1222 5h 16m 67% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON