tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4591 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4591 Southwest TPA 06:10 SDF 08:23 4% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 2140 Southwest TPA 17:15 SDF 19:27 27% 9% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481 5h 36m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 2h 47m Minneapolis MSP 12:49 → SDF 15:47DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest 8h 02m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195 5h 42m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → TPA 14:00 → DTW 16:48DL 2587 2h 57m Detroit DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic 7h 12m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 1h 26m Dulles IAD 12:48 → SDF 14:37UA 3980 · flown by Mesa 5h 37m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:53DL 1227 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126 6h 35m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → TPA 18:03 → ATL 19:48DL 759 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624 6h 23m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → TPA 07:15 → CLT 09:07AA 2538 2h 28m Charlotte CLT 11:35 → SDF 13:04AA 2816 5h 49m 96% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TPA 13:44 → ATL 15:23DL 1099 1h 02m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126 4h 05m 74% 58%
DeltaDetails → TPA 18:03 → ATL 19:48DL 759 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 20:54 → SDF 22:19DL 2842 4h 16m 69% 52%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:06 → LGA 13:46DL 2531 49m New York LGA 14:35 → SDF 17:11DL 4851 · flown by Endeavor 6h 05m 66% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON