Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1090 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:16	SEA 10:10	22%	5%	0.9%	88%worse than usual
AS 326 Alaska Flight history →	TPA 18:54	SEA 21:59	47%	14%	1.4%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	8h 58m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	8h 15m	94%	81%
United Details →	TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331	1h 38m Dulles	IAD 13:00 → SEA 15:32UA 1824	9h 32m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 20m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:00 → BOS 10:09DL 2406	1h 20m Boston	BOS 11:29 → SEA 14:50DL 332	10h 50m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51DL 2475	1h 39m New York	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	10h 45m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808	1h 21m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	8h 59m	94%	75%
Delta Details →	TPA 06:35 → SLC 09:11DL 2045	2h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	9h 14m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TPA 15:18 → ATL 16:54DL 1525	56m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SEA 20:11DL 714	7h 53m	71%	45%
American Details →	TPA 16:05 → PHL 18:48AA 809	58m Philadelphia	PHL 19:46 → SEA 22:38AA 1823	9h 33m	65%	37%
American Details →	TPA 19:45 → DFW 21:36AA 2512	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487	8h 12m	69%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON