tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1712 United TPA 06:57 SFO 09:29 14% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 1957 United TPA 15:28 SFO 18:13 26% 10% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 3h 29m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 11h 38m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 10h 20m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51DL 2475 1h 24m New York JFK 11:15 → SFO 14:33DL 363 10h 28m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → TPA 14:00 → IAD 16:22UA 1576 2h 26m Dulles IAD 18:48 → SFO 21:42UA 2832 10h 42m 96% 72%
AmericanDetails → TPA 07:15 → CLT 09:07AA 2538 3h 23m Charlotte CLT 12:30 → SFO 14:57AA 1489 10h 42m 97% 72%
UnitedDetails → TPA 06:10 → EWR 08:56UA 2439 1h 44m Newark EWR 10:40 → SFO 13:51UA 648 10h 41m 100% 71%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672 8h 18m 96% 71%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 58m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 8h 24m 89% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 16:05 → PHL 18:48AA 809 1h 00m Philadelphia PHL 19:48 → SFO 23:12AA 2506 10h 07m 67% 44%
DeltaDetails → TPA 20:02 → ATL 21:49DL 1594 51m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656 7h 34m 65% 43%
UnitedDetails → TPA 12:30 → ORD 14:40UA 2223 46m Chicago ORD 15:26 → SFO 18:18UA 1334 8h 48m 52% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON