tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2045 Delta Flight history → TPA 06:35 SLC 09:11 13% 3% 0.7% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 2h 27m Minneapolis MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651 8h 34m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 7h 55m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 8h 20m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:00 → BOS 10:09DL 2406 1h 06m Boston BOS 11:15 → SLC 14:20DL 464 9h 20m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → TPA 11:39 → IAH 13:02UA 1979 1h 23m Houston IAH 14:25 → SLC 16:40UA 6207 · flown by Mesa 7h 01m 95% 75%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:21 → LAX 09:18DL 538 3h 52m Los Angeles LAX 13:10 → SLC 16:03DL 1647 10h 42m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → TPA 12:31 → MSP 14:53DL 2301 3h 20m Minneapolis MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607 9h 36m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808 1h 12m Detroit DTW 12:20 → SLC 14:11DL 935 7h 41m 93% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → TPA 06:11 → DEN 08:09F9 1113 47m Denver DEN 08:56 → SLC 10:35F9 3219 6h 24m 74% 63%
DeltaDetails → TPA 15:18 → ATL 16:54DL 1525 1h 01m Atlanta ATL 17:55 → SLC 19:56DL 653 6h 38m 73% 45%
AmericanDetails → TPA 16:05 → PHL 18:48AA 809 48m Philadelphia PHL 19:36 → SLC 22:33AA 2630 8h 28m 59% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON