Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 331 at 10:20, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 331 Southwest	TUL 10:20	AUS 12:20	9%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Denver	DEN 08:00 → AUS 11:15UA 456	5h 15m	92%	82%
United Details →	TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa	57m Houston	IAH 07:40 → AUS 08:54UA 2376	3h 54m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	6h 25m	96%	80%
United Details →	TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa	3h 19m Houston	IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859	6h 12m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397	5h 46m	93%	72%
American Details →	TUL 12:49 → DFW 14:12AA 2352	3h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:19 → AUS 18:27AA 3722 · flown by Envoy	5h 38m	100%	71%
American Details →	TUL 06:01 → DFW 07:20AA 1090	3h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:59 → AUS 12:12AA 1070	6h 11m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest	50m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest	6h 50m	87%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TUL 16:48 → ATL 19:55DL 1186	50m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → AUS 22:07DL 1081	5h 19m	75%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON