tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4772 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4772 Southwest TUL 07:40 BNA 09:24 6% 3% 0.7% no record
WN 555 Southwest TUL 17:50 BNA 19:33 25% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 30m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 57m Houston IAH 07:40 → BNA 09:47UA 2174 4h 47m 93% 83%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 08:00 → BNA 11:42UA 605 5h 42m 92% 82%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 09m Houston IAH 11:55 → BNA 14:02UA 1318 7h 02m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142 5h 22m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → TUL 16:48 → ATL 19:55DL 1186 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 6h 27m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → TUL 07:00 → CLT 10:30AA 1729 2h 48m Charlotte CLT 13:18 → BNA 13:49AA 538 6h 49m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490 6h 11m 96% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TUL 20:40 → DFW 21:55AA 3715 · flown by Envoy 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:42 → BNA 00:39 +1AA 2979 3h 59m 74% 41%
AmericanDetails → TUL 10:38 → DFW 11:57AA 2348 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:46 → BNA 14:45AA 1084 4h 07m 47% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON