tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1729 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1729 American Flight history → TUL 07:00 CLT 10:30 14% 7% 1.5% 92%
AA 2657 American TUL 13:43 CLT 17:05 28% 7% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 24m Houston IAH 12:10 → CLT 16:02UA 6197 · flown by Mesa 8h 02m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → CLT 11:26DL 3190 4h 26m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 2h 48m Denver DEN 09:48 → CLT 15:02UA 2231 8h 02m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → TUL 16:48 → ATL 19:55DL 1186 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177 6h 10m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031 5h 13m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:01 → DFW 07:20AA 1090 2h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:58 → CLT 13:33AA 2493 6h 32m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070 7h 52m 92% 73%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:35 → ORD 08:48AA 3590 · flown by Envoy 2h 57m Chicago ORD 11:45 → CLT 14:41AA 3021 7h 06m 99% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TUL 07:47 → DFW 09:12AA 3095 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:58 → CLT 13:33AA 2493 4h 46m 71% 54%
AmericanDetails → TUL 16:12 → DFW 17:33AA 2851 1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:47 → CLT 22:21AA 3002 5h 09m 73% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON