Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 5128 at 16:29, with a 36% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5128 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TUL 16:29	DCA 20:08	36%	12%	3.2%	90%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa	1h 01m Houston	IAH 07:44 → DCA 11:40UA 512	5h 40m	95%	86%
United Details →	TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest	2h 31m Denver	DEN 09:31 → DCA 15:00UA 789	8h 00m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:46DL 1798	5h 46m	96%	79%
American Details →	TUL 06:35 → ORD 08:48AA 3590 · flown by Envoy	1h 47m Chicago	ORD 10:35 → DCA 13:41AA 1200	6h 06m	98%	77%
United Details →	TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa	3h 09m Houston	IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654	8h 03m	98%	76%
American Details →	TUL 06:01 → DFW 07:20AA 1090	1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177	5h 41m	93%	75%
Delta Details →	TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850	6h 26m	99%	71%
American Details →	TUL 07:47 → DFW 09:12AA 3095	2h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414	7h 12m	95%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TUL 12:49 → DFW 14:12AA 2352	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:01 → DCA 19:20AA 2520	5h 31m	55%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON