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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4203 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 4203 TUL 06:05 → DEN 06:52 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5914 TUL 17:10 → DEN 18:10 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 4203 Southwest TUL 06:05 DEN 06:52 4% 1% 0.7% no record
UA 5667 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → TUL 06:00 DEN 07:00 8% 5% 0.9% 94%
UA 1435 United TUL 08:55 DEN 09:44 13% 5% 1.1% no record
UA 5276 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → TUL 11:44 DEN 12:44 16% 6% 0.8% 85%
WN 2897 Southwest TUL 13:40 DEN 14:27 22% 5% 0.7% no record
OO 5673 SkyWest TUL 19:04 DEN 19:56 35% 10% 0.9% no record
WN 1862 Southwest TUL 19:05 DEN 19:53 35% 9% 0.8% no record
UA 5914 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → TUL 17:10 DEN 18:10 39% 13% 1.0% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON