Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3821 at 04:54 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–38%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3821 TUL 04:54 → DFW 06:15 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2851 TUL 16:12 → DFW 17:33 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3821 Envoy	TUL 04:54	DFW 06:15	12%	6%	3.0%	no record
AA 1090 American Flight history →	TUL 06:01	DFW 07:20	14%	8%	2.5%	91%
AA 3095 American Flight history →	TUL 07:47	DFW 09:12	21%	9%	2.4%	75%
AA 2348 American Flight history →	TUL 10:38	DFW 11:57	21%	8%	1.5%	80%
AA 2352 American Flight history →	TUL 12:49	DFW 14:12	25%	10%	1.5%	83%
AA 3715 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 20:40	DFW 21:56	25%	6%	2.3%	53%
AA 2830 American	TUL 21:08	DFW 22:29	30%	12%	2.1%	no record
AA 2851 American Flight history →	TUL 16:12	DFW 17:33	38%	14%	1.8%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON