Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1104 at 12:55, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1104 Southwest	TUL 12:55	HOU 14:42	14%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 10m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	6h 18m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TUL 16:48 → ATL 19:55DL 1186	50m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	5h 03m	75%	50%
American Details →	TUL 16:12 → DFW 17:33AA 2851	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:28 → HOU 19:48AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	3h 36m	62%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON