tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4438 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4438 Southwest TUL 06:20 LAS 07:17 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 4420 Southwest TUL 20:45 LAS 21:41 30% 9% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Denver DEN 09:30 → LAS 10:30UA 1767 6h 30m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 09m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 13m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 8h 02m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → TUL 08:49 → PHX 09:26AA 3434 · flown by Envoy 1h 38m Phoenix PHX 11:04 → LAS 12:22AA 457 5h 33m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → LAS 17:52DL 711 9h 48m 99% 69%
DeltaDetails → TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest 1h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659 6h 01m 95% 69%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:01 → DFW 07:20AA 1090 1h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:49 → LAS 09:38AA 1550 5h 37m 93% 68%
DeltaDetails → TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 18:27 → LAS 19:47DL 919 9h 06m 95% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TUL 17:10 → DEN 18:10UA 5914 · flown by SkyWest 55m Denver DEN 19:05 → LAS 20:08UA 655 4h 58m 52% 27%
AlaskaDetails → TUL 15:07 → SAN 16:15AS 2320 · flown by Horizon 1h 00m San Diego SAN 17:15 → LAS 18:41AS 2018 · flown by Horizon 5h 34m 49% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON