Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via DFW, leaving 20:40, is the safest bet: 40% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 6286 SkyWest	TUL 17:05	LAX 18:41	21%	7%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest	3h 02m Denver	DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405	7h 34m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	10h 12m	98%	80%
United Details →	TUL 09:00 → IAH 11:01UA 4007 · flown by Mesa	3h 59m Houston	IAH 15:00 → LAX 16:44UA 1945	9h 44m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	8h 13m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest	1h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	6h 27m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 18:50 → LAX 20:36DL 996	9h 55m	96%	72%
American Details →	TUL 08:49 → PHX 09:27AA 3434 · flown by Envoy	1h 17m Phoenix	PHX 10:44 → LAX 12:14AA 2027	5h 25m	94%	72%
American Details →	TUL 06:01 → DFW 07:20AA 1090	3h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:58 → LAX 12:18AA 3181	8h 17m	98%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TUL 20:40 → DFW 21:56AA 3715 · flown by Envoy	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:43 → LAX 00:04 +1AA 2038	5h 24m	72%	40%
American Details →	TUL 16:12 → DFW 17:33AA 2851	1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:37 → LAX 19:55AA 2043	5h 43m	64%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON