tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, YX 4605 at 14:18, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4605 Republic TUL 14:18 LGA 18:47 17% 8% 1.8% no record
DL 4631 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record TUL 07:00 LGA 11:11 32% 20% 4.1% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 1h 17m Houston IAH 08:00 → LGA 12:31UA 1143 6h 31m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 7h 50m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m Denver DEN 08:03 → LGA 13:57UA 1442 6h 57m 92% 80%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524 5h 46m 95% 75%
AmericanDetails → TUL 16:29 → DCA 20:08AA 5128 · flown by PSA 2h 30m Washington DCA 22:38 → LGA 00:02 +1AA 4719 · flown by Republic 6h 33m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 14m Houston IAH 12:00 → LGA 16:44UA 2181 8h 44m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 19:00 → LGA 21:28DL 468 7h 47m 96% 69%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:01 → DFW 07:20AA 1090 2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:25 → LGA 13:54AA 2178 6h 53m 94% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TUL 12:49 → DFW 14:12AA 2352 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:06 → LGA 19:47AA 2434 5h 58m 72% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON