tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 378 at 10:10, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 378 Southwest TUL 10:10 MCO 13:52 15% 4% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 1h 10m Denver DEN 08:10 → MCO 13:57UA 2292 6h 57m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 2h 47m Houston IAH 09:30 → MCO 13:00UA 2310 7h 00m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030 6h 00m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 39m Houston IAH 12:25 → MCO 16:04UA 2662 8h 04m 99% 72%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:01 → DFW 07:20AA 1090 1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:38 → MCO 12:17AA 2136 5h 16m 93% 69%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:35 → ORD 08:48AA 3590 · flown by Envoy 1h 50m Chicago ORD 10:38 → MCO 14:22AA 3293 6h 47m 98% 68%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 16:00 → MCO 17:47DL 1742 6h 43m 99% 67%
DeltaDetails → TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest 1h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 11:23 → MCO 18:01DL 2024 9h 01m 94% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TUL 16:12 → DFW 17:33AA 2851 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → MCO 22:17AA 2186 5h 05m 63% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON