Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Bush, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa	1h 09m Houston	IAH 07:52 → MIA 11:45UA 2753	5h 45m	96%	76%
Delta Details →	TUL 16:48 → ATL 19:55DL 1186	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	7h 07m	98%	69%
Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	6h 07m	96%	69%
American Details →	TUL 06:01 → DFW 07:20AA 1090	1h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:54 → MIA 12:55AA 1219	5h 54m	93%	64%
United Details →	TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest	2h 29m Denver	DEN 09:29 → MIA 15:24UA 1418	8h 24m	98%	63%
Delta Details →	TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	5h 51m	98%	59%
United Details →	TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa	3h 14m Houston	IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410	7h 47m	98%	59%
American Details →	TUL 08:49 → PHX 09:26AA 3434 · flown by Envoy	2h 47m Phoenix	PHX 12:13 → MIA 19:41AA 404	9h 52m	100%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TUL 16:29 → DCA 20:08AA 5128 · flown by PSA	1h 04m Washington	DCA 21:12 → MIA 23:58AA 2214	6h 29m	64%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON