Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2063 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 45–49%.

Safest bet that day UA 2063 TUL 05:57 → ORD 08:01 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 4098 TUL 17:05 → ORD 19:03 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2063 United	TUL 05:57	ORD 08:01	9%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 3590 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 06:35	ORD 08:48	12%	5%	2.0%	85%
AA 4155 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 10:54	ORD 12:58	19%	6%	2.2%	83%
OO 5442 SkyWest	TUL 09:51	ORD 11:52	19%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 4057 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 19:20	ORD 21:18	45%	20%	6.8%	50%
MQ 4098 Envoy	TUL 17:05	ORD 19:03	49%	21%	4.8%	no record
UA 4483 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 18:20	ORD 20:30	29%	10%	5.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON