Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2545 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2545 TUL 07:00 → PHX 07:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2065 TUL 21:20 → PHX 21:56 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2545 Southwest	TUL 07:00	PHX 07:35	7%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 3434 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 08:49	PHX 09:26	14%	4%	0.8%	93%
MQ 3645 Envoy	TUL 18:32	PHX 19:11	21%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 2065 Southwest	TUL 21:20	PHX 21:56	27%	9%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON