tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2320 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record TUL 15:07 SAN 16:15 51% 10% 1.9% 49%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 2h 47m Houston IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51UA 2491 7h 51m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 08m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 14m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 8h 21m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 15:37 → SAN 17:12DL 924 9h 08m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 6h 08m 94% 70%
DeltaDetails → TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 18:01 → SAN 19:36DL 712 8h 55m 94% 65%
AmericanDetails → TUL 08:49 → PHX 09:26AA 3434 · flown by Envoy 1h 14m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → SAN 12:06AA 2122 5h 17m 93% 65%
UnitedDetails → TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest 3h 11m Denver DEN 15:55 → SAN 17:20UA 1281 7h 36m 97% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest 46m Denver DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302 5h 11m 70% 49%
AlaskaDetails → TUL 18:09 → SEA 20:17AS 2220 · flown by Horizon 51m Seattle SEA 21:08 → SAN 23:58AS 600 7h 49m 65% 44%
UnitedDetails → TUL 17:10 → DEN 18:10UA 5914 · flown by SkyWest 1h 10m Denver DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540 5h 36m 71% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON