tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2220 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record TUL 18:09 SEA 20:17 27% 10% 0.0% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 10h 50m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest 1h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 6h 49m 95% 73%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481 8h 45m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 59m Denver DEN 07:59 → SEA 09:48UA 1348 5h 48m 91% 73%
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 3h 17m Houston IAH 10:00 → SEA 12:47UA 2205 9h 47m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 17m Houston IAH 12:03 → SEA 14:34UA 2228 9h 34m 98% 70%
AmericanDetails → TUL 08:49 → PHX 09:26AA 3434 · flown by Envoy 1h 04m Phoenix PHX 10:30 → SEA 13:41AA 2208 6h 52m 88% 68%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:01 → DFW 07:20AA 1090 3h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:45 → SEA 13:03AA 717 9h 02m 98% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TUL 20:40 → DFW 21:55AA 3715 · flown by Envoy 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487 6h 17m 74% 39%
UnitedDetails → TUL 17:10 → DEN 18:10UA 5914 · flown by SkyWest 1h 01m Denver DEN 19:11 → SEA 21:00UA 2767 5h 50m 62% 28%
AlaskaDetails → TUL 15:07 → SAN 16:15AS 2320 · flown by Horizon 1h 05m San Diego SAN 17:20 → SEA 20:08AS 692 7h 01m 57% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON