Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 4006 at 08:00, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4006 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 08:00	SLC 09:55	8%	4%	0.8%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	7h 10m	94%	77%
United Details →	TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa	3h 02m Houston	IAH 09:45 → SLC 11:58UA 2242	7h 58m	100%	77%
United Details →	TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest	49m Denver	DEN 07:49 → SLC 09:24UA 497	4h 24m	86%	76%
American Details →	TUL 06:01 → DFW 07:20AA 1090	1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:43 → SLC 10:37AA 1878	5h 36m	93%	70%
Delta Details →	TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	8h 14m	99%	68%
Alaska Details →	TUL 15:07 → SAN 16:15AS 2320 · flown by Horizon	2h 34m San Diego	SAN 18:49 → SLC 21:57AS 3017 · flown by SkyWest	7h 50m	96%	66%
American Details →	TUL 06:35 → ORD 08:48AA 3590 · flown by Envoy	1h 33m Chicago	ORD 10:21 → SLC 12:52AA 3258	7h 17m	97%	66%
American Details →	TUL 07:47 → DFW 09:12AA 3095	2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:32 → SLC 13:24AA 1871	6h 37m	94%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TUL 08:49 → PHX 09:26AA 3434 · flown by Envoy	55m Phoenix	PHX 10:21 → SLC 13:02AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest	5h 13m	71%	58%
United Details →	TUL 17:10 → DEN 18:10UA 5914 · flown by SkyWest	1h 13m Denver	DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769	4h 46m	73%	33%
United Details →	TUL 18:20 → ORD 20:30UA 4483 · flown by GoJet	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 21:31 → SLC 23:50UA 1710	6h 30m	72%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON