Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: DL 886 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 886 Delta Flight history →	TUS 06:00	ATL 12:38	5%	2%	0.8%	97%
DL 937 Delta Flight history →	TUS 13:49	ATL 20:45	15%	5%	0.9%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Tucson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest	3h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	9h 17m	100%	74%
United Details →	TUS 15:32 → SFO 18:12UA 6006 · flown by SkyWest	3h 30m San Francisco	SFO 21:42 → ATL 05:37 +1UA 233	11h 05m	97%	73%
American Details →	TUS 05:01 → DFW 09:27AA 2193	2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:08 → ATL 15:33AA 1008	7h 32m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	TUS 06:20 → LAX 08:00DL 3502 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528	9h 17m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest	3h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:55 → ATL 23:58DL 905	9h 42m	98%	64%
United Details →	TUS 07:03 → SFO 09:24UA 4683 · flown by SkyWest	1h 25m San Francisco	SFO 10:49 → ATL 18:40UA 702	8h 37m	89%	64%
American Details →	TUS 07:00 → DFW 11:25AA 2555	2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:33 → ATL 16:53AA 2398	6h 53m	89%	63%
American Details →	TUS 06:02 → LAX 07:46AA 6393 · flown by SkyWest	1h 59m Los Angeles	LAX 09:45 → ATL 17:15AA 753	8h 13m	98%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TUS 12:20 → ORD 18:08AA 2537	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 19:38 → ATL 22:52AA 3114	7h 32m	74%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON