Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4210 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 4210 TUS 06:45 → DEN 09:53 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 951 TUS 15:00 → DEN 18:08 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4210 Southwest	TUS 06:45	DEN 09:53	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1540 United	TUS 05:11	DEN 08:20	5%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2958 Southwest	TUS 10:05	DEN 13:13	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1656 United	TUS 09:41	DEN 12:54	13%	7%	0.7%	no record
OO 5860 SkyWest	TUS 17:40	DEN 20:53	30%	11%	0.9%	no record
UA 2089 United	TUS 13:39	DEN 16:59	31%	12%	0.8%	no record
WN 951 Southwest	TUS 15:00	DEN 18:08	40%	14%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON