Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 189 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 189 TUS 05:10 → LAS 06:42 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1247 TUS 20:25 → LAS 21:52 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 189 Southwest	TUS 05:10	LAS 06:42	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4051 Southwest	TUS 10:55	LAS 12:28	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 381 Southwest	TUS 13:45	LAS 15:17	30%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 1247 Southwest	TUS 20:25	LAS 21:52	39%	12%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON