Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 6393 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 6393 TUS 06:02 → LAX 07:46 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest OO 6292 TUS 18:10 → LAX 19:51 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6393 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 06:02	LAX 07:46	7%	4%	0.6%	88%
DL 3502 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 06:20	LAX 08:00	13%	4%	0.6%	94%
WN 3742 Southwest	TUS 10:00	LAX 11:42	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 6296 SkyWest	TUS 10:25	LAX 12:06	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 3904 SkyWest	TUS 12:28	LAX 14:11	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 3906 SkyWest	TUS 16:42	LAX 18:25	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 6292 SkyWest	TUS 18:10	LAX 19:51	21%	7%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON