Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: OO 5575 at 06:41 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 47%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 5575 SkyWest	TUS 06:41	ORD 12:21	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 2537 American Flight history →	TUS 12:20	ORD 18:08	47%	22%	1.3%	66%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Tucson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TUS 13:12 → SFO 15:40UA 5583 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m San Francisco	SFO 18:49 → ORD 00:59 +1UA 1958	9h 47m	96%	69%
Delta Details →	TUS 13:49 → ATL 20:45DL 937	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	8h 04m	95%	66%
Delta Details →	TUS 11:53 → SEA 15:23DL 3679 · flown by SkyWest	2h 17m Seattle	SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108	9h 45m	97%	65%
American Details →	TUS 05:01 → DFW 09:27AA 2193	1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:25 → ORD 13:52AA 1285	6h 51m	97%	63%
American Details →	TUS 20:31 → PHX 21:37AA 6457 · flown by SkyWest	2h 05m Phoenix	PHX 23:42 → ORD 05:06 +1AA 2059	6h 35m	87%	62%
American Details →	TUS 06:02 → LAX 07:46AA 6393 · flown by SkyWest	1h 43m Los Angeles	LAX 09:29 → ORD 15:37AA 2998	7h 35m	97%	61%
United Details →	TUS 06:37 → IAH 11:13UA 4042 · flown by Mesa	2h 41m Houston	IAH 13:54 → ORD 16:41UA 1299	8h 04m	100%	59%
Delta Details →	TUS 06:20 → LAX 08:00DL 3502 · flown by SkyWest	3h 24m Los Angeles	LAX 11:24 → ORD 17:35DL 2368	9h 15m	97%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	TUS 13:12 → SFO 15:40UA 5583 · flown by SkyWest	59m San Francisco	SFO 16:39 → ORD 22:48UA 1887	7h 36m	72%	40%
American Details →	TUS 15:57 → DFW 20:29AA 584	1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:32 → ORD 23:50AA 1620	5h 53m	69%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON