tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via Phoenix, leaving 18:33, is the safest bet: 38% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3331 SkyWest TUS 06:02 PDX 09:12 3% 3% 0.6% no record
AS 2216 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record TUS 10:31 PDX 13:46 2% 0% 0.0% 98%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 5h 05m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → TUS 06:20 → LAX 08:00DL 3502 · flown by SkyWest 2h 00m Los Angeles LAX 10:00 → PDX 12:20DL 2766 6h 00m 97% 78%
AlaskaDetails → TUS 07:24 → SEA 10:40AS 767 1h 36m Seattle SEA 12:16 → PDX 13:15AS 488 5h 51m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → TUS 08:35 → PHX 09:41AA 3958 · flown by Envoy 1h 12m Phoenix PHX 10:53 → PDX 13:54AA 2684 5h 19m 95% 73%
UnitedDetails → TUS 07:03 → SFO 09:24UA 4683 · flown by SkyWest 3h 21m San Francisco SFO 12:45 → PDX 14:45UA 2851 7h 42m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → TUS 13:12 → SFO 15:40UA 5583 · flown by SkyWest 3h 36m San Francisco SFO 19:16 → PDX 21:18UA 1227 8h 06m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest 3h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238 7h 02m 98% 71%
AlaskaDetails → TUS 15:54 → SEA 19:08AS 641 1h 17m Seattle SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon 5h 28m 86% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TUS 15:32 → SFO 18:12UA 6006 · flown by SkyWest 1h 04m San Francisco SFO 19:16 → PDX 21:18UA 1227 5h 46m 73% 54%
AmericanDetails → TUS 18:33 → PHX 19:33AA 6208 · flown by SkyWest 52m Phoenix PHX 20:25 → PDX 23:08AA 561 4h 35m 66% 38%
AmericanDetails → TUS 15:57 → DFW 20:29AA 584 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:30 → PDX 23:34AA 2298 7h 37m 67% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON