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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1289 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1289 TUS 06:10 → PHX 07:16 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 40 TUS 19:10 → PHX 20:10 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 1289 Southwest TUS 06:10 PHX 07:16 3% 1% 0.6% no record
OO 9916 SkyWest TUS 06:55 PHX 08:18 8% 5% 0.7% no record
OO 4888 SkyWest TUS 06:41 PHX 07:50 10% 4% 0.7% no record
AA 3958 American flown by Envoy Flight history → TUS 08:35 PHX 09:41 13% 3% 0.8% 91%
AA 6514 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → TUS 10:13 PHX 11:13 15% 5% 0.7% 90%
OO 6370 SkyWest TUS 12:04 PHX 13:10 15% 6% 0.7% no record
OO 6294 SkyWest TUS 15:13 PHX 16:22 18% 7% 0.8% no record
AA 6207 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → TUS 16:54 PHX 18:03 20% 8% 0.9% 70%
OO 6332 SkyWest TUS 13:43 PHX 14:52 20% 7% 0.7% no record
AA 6208 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → TUS 18:33 PHX 19:33 23% 9% 0.9% 80%
AA 6457 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → TUS 20:31 PHX 21:37 26% 12% 1.0% 60%
WN 40 Southwest TUS 19:10 PHX 20:10 30% 11% 0.9% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON