tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 434 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 41%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 434 Southwest TUS 05:45 SAN 07:17 6% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1822 Southwest TUS 19:05 SAN 20:35 41% 13% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 5h 03m 96% 72%
AlaskaDetails → TUS 10:31 → PDX 13:46AS 2216 · flown by Horizon 1h 07m Portland PDX 14:53 → SAN 17:29AS 1320 6h 58m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → TUS 06:37 → IAH 11:13UA 4042 · flown by Mesa 47m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 6h 44m 84% 61%
AmericanDetails → TUS 08:35 → PHX 09:41AA 3958 · flown by Envoy 59m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → SAN 12:06AA 2122 3h 31m 87% 61%
AmericanDetails → TUS 10:13 → PHX 11:13AA 6514 · flown by SkyWest 2h 54m Phoenix PHX 14:07 → SAN 15:33AA 1951 5h 20m 99% 60%
DeltaDetails → TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252 6h 50m 98% 58%
DeltaDetails → TUS 06:20 → LAX 08:00DL 3502 · flown by SkyWest 50m Los Angeles LAX 08:50 → SAN 09:52DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest 3h 32m 82% 56%
UnitedDetails → TUS 13:12 → SFO 15:40UA 5583 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m San Francisco SFO 16:47 → SAN 18:39UA 1561 5h 27m 78% 49%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → TUS 07:24 → SEA 10:40AS 767 53m Seattle SEA 11:33 → SAN 14:20AS 621 6h 56m 69% 45%
AlaskaDetails → TUS 15:54 → SEA 19:08AS 641 59m Seattle SEA 20:07 → SAN 22:55AS 254 7h 01m 68% 40%
AmericanDetails → TUS 18:33 → PHX 19:33AA 6208 · flown by SkyWest 47m Phoenix PHX 20:20 → SAN 21:34AA 559 3h 01m 59% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON