Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 3745 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 3745 TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest OO 3822 TUS 16:33 → SLC 19:32 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3745 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 07:05	SLC 10:07	4%	3%	0.7%	98%
DL 3718 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 11:16	SLC 14:13	9%	4%	0.7%	97%
OO 3822 SkyWest	TUS 16:33	SLC 19:32	20%	9%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON