Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Atlanta on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	2h 39m Detroit	DTW 10:31 → ATL 12:27DL 2856	5h 42m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	TVC 13:36 → MSP 14:14DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	2h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 16:41 → ATL 20:20DL 2021	6h 44m	100%	79%
United Details →	TVC 08:52 → ORD 09:17UA 3713 · flown by Republic	2h 39m Chicago	ORD 11:56 → ATL 15:07UA 2779	6h 15m	98%	77%
United Details →	TVC 12:15 → ORD 12:45UA 4562 · flown by GoJet	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → ATL 17:10UA 356	4h 55m	85%	60%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	1h 41m Denver	DEN 18:08 → ATL 23:14UA 248	7h 46m	91%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON