Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OH 5041 at 13:13, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OH 5041 PSA	TVC 13:13	CLT 15:27	20%	7%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	2h 45m Detroit	DTW 10:37 → CLT 12:24DL 2684	5h 39m	99%	87%
United Details →	TVC 08:52 → ORD 09:17UA 3713 · flown by Republic	1h 09m Chicago	ORD 10:26 → CLT 13:50UA 3450 · flown by Republic	4h 58m	91%	76%
Delta Details →	TVC 13:36 → MSP 14:14DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821	5h 13m	84%	68%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	1h 18m Denver	DEN 17:45 → CLT 23:08UA 616	7h 40m	80%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON