Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, MQ 4199 at 16:16, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 4199 Envoy	TVC 16:16	DFW 18:18	22%	7%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TVC 08:52 → ORD 09:17UA 3713 · flown by Republic	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:12UA 441	5h 20m	92%	71%
United Details →	TVC 12:15 → ORD 12:45UA 4562 · flown by GoJet	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 15:40 → DFW 18:22UA 793	7h 07m	95%	55%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	2h 26m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	7h 31m	94%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON