Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 2292 at 06:45, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2292 Delta Flight history →	TVC 06:45	DTW 07:52	8%	3%	0.7%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TVC 08:52 → ORD 09:17UA 3713 · flown by Republic	1h 33m Chicago	ORD 10:50 → DTW 13:27UA 5756 · flown by SkyWest	4h 35m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	TVC 13:36 → MSP 14:14DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	2h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	5h 23m	96%	77%
JetBlue Details →	TVC 11:41 → BOS 14:01B6 1264	1h 37m Boston	BOS 15:38 → DTW 17:49B6 1237	6h 08m	86%	61%
United Details →	TVC 12:15 → ORD 12:45UA 4562 · flown by GoJet	3h 13m Chicago	ORD 15:58 → DTW 18:20UA 2632	6h 05m	95%	51%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	1h 20m Denver	DEN 17:47 → DTW 22:43UA 1220	7h 15m	81%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON