Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	2h 23m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577	5h 11m	98%	86%
United Details →	TVC 08:52 → ORD 09:17UA 3713 · flown by Republic	1h 34m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856	5h 25m	98%	73%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	2h 50m Denver	DEN 19:17 → EWR 01:09 +1UA 2093	9h 41m	95%	55%
United Details →	TVC 12:15 → ORD 12:45UA 4562 · flown by GoJet	1h 26m Chicago	ORD 14:11 → EWR 17:32UA 2466	5h 17m	93%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TVC 18:35 → MSP 19:14DL 4915 · flown by Endeavor	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846	5h 21m	60%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON