Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via O'Hare, leaving 08:52, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TVC 08:52 → ORD 09:17UA 3713 · flown by Republic	3h 23m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:39UA 1448	7h 47m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	48m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → IAH 10:37DL 1043	4h 52m	86%	70%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	3h 08m Denver	DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475	8h 38m	98%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	48m Denver	DEN 17:15 → IAH 20:40UA 1587	6h 12m	60%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON