Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	2h 08m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → LGA 11:45DL 2589	5h 00m	98%	86%
United Details →	TVC 08:52 → ORD 09:17UA 3713 · flown by Republic	1h 41m Chicago	ORD 10:58 → LGA 14:09UA 529	5h 17m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	TVC 13:36 → MSP 14:14DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18DL 2732	5h 42m	91%	70%
United Details →	TVC 12:15 → ORD 12:45UA 4562 · flown by GoJet	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 14:00 → LGA 17:22UA 1821	5h 07m	89%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON