Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 3995 at 13:36, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3995 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TVC 13:36	MSP 14:14	15%	7%	0.6%	80%
DL 4915 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	TVC 18:35	MSP 19:14	40%	26%	0.0%	60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	1h 08m Detroit	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	4h 09m	94%	85%
United Details →	TVC 08:52 → ORD 09:17UA 3713 · flown by Republic	1h 13m Chicago	ORD 10:30 → MSP 12:00UA 215	4h 08m	92%	69%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	2h 18m Denver	DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076	7h 22m	94%	61%
United Details →	TVC 12:15 → ORD 12:45UA 4562 · flown by GoJet	1h 45m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → MSP 16:13UA 2298	4h 58m	93%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON