Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2271 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 54%.

Safest bet that day UA 2271 TVC 05:57 → ORD 06:18 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5865 TVC 17:59 → ORD 18:20 · 54% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2271 United	TVC 05:57	ORD 06:18	7%	5%	1.2%	no record
UA 3713 United flown by Republic Flight history →	TVC 08:52	ORD 09:17	14%	4%	1.2%	47%
UA 346 United	TVC 10:20	ORD 10:41	20%	8%	1.4%	no record
OO 4900 SkyWest	TVC 07:46	ORD 08:07	22%	9%	1.5%	no record
OO 6298 SkyWest	TVC 10:51	ORD 11:12	29%	10%	1.7%	no record
OO 5839 SkyWest	TVC 11:54	ORD 12:15	29%	11%	1.9%	no record
OO 6209 SkyWest	TVC 15:09	ORD 15:38	44%	22%	6.6%	no record
OO 5592 SkyWest	TVC 14:07	ORD 14:28	46%	19%	4.1%	no record
OO 6297 SkyWest	TVC 19:25	ORD 19:46	54%	26%	7.9%	no record
OO 5865 SkyWest	TVC 17:59	ORD 18:20	54%	26%	7.8%	no record
UA 4562 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	TVC 12:15	ORD 12:45	23%	7%	1.6%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON